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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+8.46vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.84+4.25vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.38+5.13vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.37+3.80vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.42+2.69vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida2.24+6.55vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.91+2.83vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.05+1.13vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.96+0.56vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.76+0.73vs Predicted
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11Boston College4.01-5.45vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.99-2.15vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.92-3.31vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-1.98vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-8.29vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.58-4.70vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.44-5.06vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy2.14-5.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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6.25University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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8.13Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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7.8College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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7.69Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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12.55University of South Florida2.240.0%1st Place
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9.83Tufts University2.910.0%1st Place
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9.13Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
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9.56University of Vermont2.960.0%1st Place
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10.73Georgetown University2.760.0%1st Place
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5.55Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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9.85Dartmouth College2.990.0%1st Place
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9.69Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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12.02University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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6.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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11.3George Washington University2.580.0%1st Place
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11.94Bowdoin College2.440.0%1st Place
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12.82U. S. Naval Academy2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Smith | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| Rachel Bryer | 7.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Alie Toppa | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Alison Knoles | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 16.8% |
| MaryClaire Kiernan | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% |
| Casey Klingler | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Amina Brown | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| Rose Edwards | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 5.3% |
| Erika Reineke | 13.1% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Emma White | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% |
| Maeve White | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% |
| Simone Staff | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 14.2% |
| Nikole Barnes | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Miranda Bakos | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% |
| Mary Paz | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 12.6% |
| Jessica McJones | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 18.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.