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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.92vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.50+5.65vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+1.30vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.15vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.32+3.22vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.74+4.45vs Predicted
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7Drexel University0.72+6.22vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.29+0.28vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-4.21vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-2.24vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-5.53vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University0.98+0.54vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.63-5.57vs Predicted
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14Villanova University1.24-2.05vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.10-0.07vs Predicted
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16Columbia University2.43-8.00vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.03-2.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.92U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.65Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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4.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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7.15University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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8.22Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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10.45George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.22Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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8.28Washington College2.290.1%1st Place
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4.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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7.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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5.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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12.54Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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7.43SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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11.95Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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14.93Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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8.0Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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14.95Princeton University-0.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Edegran | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 18.2% | 15.9% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 19.0% | 18.6% | 12.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Liberty | 13.8% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 11.5% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 18.3% | 14.6% | 7.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Celone | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 15.8% | 11.8% | 3.1% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 22.9% | 39.6% |
| Irene Jacqz | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Smith | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 12.8% | 23.9% | 36.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.