← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University2.50+6.59vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania2.68+5.08vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.72vs Predicted
-
4Washington College2.29+4.54vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.94vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-0.53vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60-2.71vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University1.74+2.09vs Predicted
-
9Monmouth University0.98+3.75vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-2.14vs Predicted
-
11Princeton University0.21+3.50vs Predicted
-
12Cornell University2.32-3.69vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College2.63-5.59vs Predicted
-
14Villanova University1.24-2.03vs Predicted
-
15Columbia University2.43-7.01vs Predicted
-
16Drexel University0.72-2.65vs Predicted
-
17Rutgers University-0.10-1.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.59Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
-
7.08University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
-
4.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
-
8.54Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
-
5.94U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
5.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
-
4.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
-
10.09George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
-
12.75Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
-
7.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
-
14.5Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
-
8.31Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
-
7.41SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
-
11.97Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
-
7.99Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
-
13.35Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
-
15.14Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Turchiano | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 14.3% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Lukas Edegran | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 12.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 16.4% | 16.0% | 14.6% | 13.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 1.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 17.6% | 15.4% | 7.9% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 24.0% | 30.1% |
| Blair Davis | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Julia Paxton | 7.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Celone | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 4.3% |
| Irene Jacqz | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 17.7% | 18.0% | 12.6% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 20.1% | 43.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.