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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+3.19vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.68+5.03vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.71vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+1.39vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.50+2.60vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.23vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+0.88vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.32+0.20vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.43-0.87vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.63-2.79vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.29-2.45vs Predicted
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12Drexel University0.72+1.34vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.74-2.64vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University0.98-1.27vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.21-0.56vs Predicted
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16Villanova University1.24-4.10vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University-0.10-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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7.03University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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4.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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5.39St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.6Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.23U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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8.2Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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8.13Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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7.21SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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8.55Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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13.34Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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10.36George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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12.73Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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14.44Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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11.9Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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15.13Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kana | 19.6% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 14.7% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 13.0% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lukas Edegran | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Blair Davis | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Irene Jacqz | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Julia Paxton | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Mildred Conroy | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jason Sinclair | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 12.9% | 18.5% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 7.6% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 22.7% | 30.4% |
| Sarah Celone | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 4.6% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 21.0% | 42.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.