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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.50+6.36vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+2.56vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.02vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+1.31vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60-0.79vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.63+1.36vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.29+1.33vs Predicted
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8Drexel University0.72+4.80vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-1.09vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-4.02vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.32-2.64vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.43-4.17vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.74-2.81vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-0.10+0.86vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.21-0.87vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University-0.23-0.93vs Predicted
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17Villanova University1.24-5.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.36Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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4.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.2%1st Place
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7.02University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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5.31St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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4.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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7.36SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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8.33Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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12.8Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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7.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.36Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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7.83Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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10.19George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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14.86Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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14.13Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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15.07Monmouth University-0.230.0%1st Place
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11.72Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Turchiano | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 15.1% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 12.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 18.2% | 16.5% | 15.8% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 20.0% | 14.9% | 8.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Irene Jacqz | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 16.4% | 23.2% | 33.3% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 17.0% | 25.7% | 18.5% |
| Matthew Marciano | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 22.9% | 36.2% |
| Sarah Celone | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 13.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.