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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+3.54vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.50+5.52vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.29+5.34vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.63+3.23vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.89vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.43+2.01vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-1.75vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.68-1.12vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-1.04vs Predicted
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10Drexel University0.72+3.01vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.74-0.85vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.32-3.83vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60-8.66vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.21+0.26vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University-0.23-0.05vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University-0.10-1.11vs Predicted
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17Villanova University1.24-5.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.2%1st Place
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7.52Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.34Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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7.23SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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5.89U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.01Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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6.88University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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7.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.0%1st Place
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13.01Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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10.15George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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8.17Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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4.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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14.26Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.95Monmouth University-0.230.0%1st Place
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14.89Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.62Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Liberty | 17.0% | 15.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Julia Paxton | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Edegran | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ian Liberty | 12.0% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 16.5% | 18.3% | 15.6% | 7.2% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Blair Davis | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 16.4% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 19.6% | 22.9% | 21.5% |
| Matthew Marciano | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 23.7% | 36.8% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 16.6% | 24.3% | 31.0% |
| Sarah Celone | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 8.0% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.