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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.49+6.56vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.88vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+3.95vs Predicted
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4Boston College4.01+1.48vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.50+2.26vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.48+1.42vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan1.84+6.24vs Predicted
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8Yale University4.08-2.75vs Predicted
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9Texas A&M University1.31+5.85vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-0.79vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University1.95+2.09vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.40vs Predicted
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13Santa Barbara City College2.29-1.30vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.08-1.76vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College2.72-4.76vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University3.51-8.63vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida3.59-9.90vs Predicted
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18University of Washington0.95-2.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.56Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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6.88U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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5.48Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.26Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.42Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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13.24University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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5.25Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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14.85Texas A&M University1.310.0%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.1%1st Place
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13.09Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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9.6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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11.7Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
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12.24University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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10.24Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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7.37Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.1University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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15.55University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rolander | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 13.7% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mason Wolters | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 11.3% |
| Ian Barrows | 12.8% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julian Martin | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 21.8% | 26.1% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Mark Davies | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 9.4% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Silas Barton | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 3.4% |
| Max Thompson | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 6.2% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Sean Cornell | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 18.8% | 41.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.