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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+6.58vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+7.26vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.08+2.48vs Predicted
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4Boston College4.01+1.50vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.49+2.32vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.51+1.30vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.08+5.53vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-1.24vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.50-1.71vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College2.72+0.45vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida3.59-3.87vs Predicted
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12Texas A&M University1.31+3.04vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-3.91vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.67-7.50vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.84-1.72vs Predicted
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16Santa Barbara City College2.29-4.08vs Predicted
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17University of Washington0.95-1.27vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.95-5.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.58Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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9.26University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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5.48Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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5.5Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.32Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.3Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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12.53University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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6.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.29Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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10.45Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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7.13University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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15.04Texas A&M University1.310.0%1st Place
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9.09St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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6.5U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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13.28University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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11.92Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
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15.73University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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12.83Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Ian Barrows | 11.1% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 12.8% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Rolander | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Thompson | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 15.1% | 10.7% | 6.4% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.8% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Sean Cornell | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Julian Martin | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 24.5% | 26.1% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Snow | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mason Wolters | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 10.3% |
| Silas Barton | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.9% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 18.4% | 43.2% |
| Mark Davies | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.