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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.08+4.50vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University1.95+11.27vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.89vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.49+3.24vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.08+7.40vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.01-0.47vs Predicted
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7Texas A&M University1.31+7.80vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.48-0.64vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.84+4.33vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida3.59-2.75vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.51-3.53vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.50-4.33vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-3.88vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College2.72-4.08vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-8.24vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-6.93vs Predicted
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17University of Washington0.95-1.26vs Predicted
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18Santa Barbara City College2.29-6.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.5Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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13.27Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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6.89U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.24Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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12.4University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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5.53Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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14.8Texas A&M University1.310.0%1st Place
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7.36Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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13.33University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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7.25University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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7.47Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.67Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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9.12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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9.92Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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6.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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9.07University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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15.74University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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11.68Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 13.3% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Davies | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 17.7% | 14.3% | 7.7% |
| Patrick Snow | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| John Rolander | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Max Thompson | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 7.2% |
| Erika Reineke | 13.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julian Martin | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 21.0% | 26.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Mason Wolters | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 15.8% | 9.3% |
| Sean Cornell | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 19.0% | 43.5% |
| Silas Barton | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.