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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.49+6.54vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.08+10.77vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.94vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.48+3.23vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.08+0.38vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+0.82vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.51+0.29vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.59-1.08vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.26vs Predicted
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10Boston College4.01-4.32vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.84+2.43vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.72-1.40vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University1.31+1.62vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-5.31vs Predicted
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15Santa Barbara City College2.29-3.19vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University3.50-8.62vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.95-3.93vs Predicted
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18University of Washington0.93-2.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.54Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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12.77University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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6.94U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.23Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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5.38Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.29Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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6.92University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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9.26St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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5.68Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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13.43University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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10.6Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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14.62Texas A&M University1.310.0%1st Place
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8.69University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.1%1st Place
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11.81Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
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7.38Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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13.07Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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15.56University of Washington0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rolander | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Max Thompson | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 5.6% |
| Patrick Snow | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Ian Barrows | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Sean Cornell | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Erika Reineke | 12.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Wolters | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 15.9% | 12.8% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Julian Martin | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 19.0% | 24.8% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Silas Barton | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 4.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Mark Davies | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 10.3% |
| Hayden Potter | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 19.8% | 39.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.