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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+6.59vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.49+5.62vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida3.59+4.25vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+2.70vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.01+0.56vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.51+1.34vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.97vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College2.82+1.80vs Predicted
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9Santa Barbara City College2.29+2.82vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.48vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.08+1.62vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.84+1.62vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.67-6.37vs Predicted
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14Yale University4.08-8.85vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.50-7.66vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University1.31-1.13vs Predicted
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17University of Washington0.95-1.28vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.93-5.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.59Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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7.62Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.25University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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6.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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5.56Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.34Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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8.97University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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9.8Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
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11.82Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
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9.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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12.62University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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13.62University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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6.63U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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5.15Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.34Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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14.87Texas A&M University1.310.0%1st Place
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15.72University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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12.89Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John Rolander | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sean Cornell | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 11.9% | 14.5% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Silas Barton | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 3.7% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Max Thompson | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 14.9% | 11.4% | 6.9% |
| Mason Wolters | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 18.4% | 12.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Barrows | 14.1% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Julian Martin | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 20.4% | 26.3% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 17.9% | 42.9% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.