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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.49+6.60vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.51+5.51vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+6.22vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.12vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.08+0.34vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.50+1.35vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.48+0.41vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-1.27vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.67-2.34vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida3.59-2.72vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College2.82-0.96vs Predicted
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12Boston College4.01-6.20vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.08-0.59vs Predicted
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14Santa Barbara City College2.29-2.42vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.84-1.61vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University1.93-2.85vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University1.31-2.11vs Predicted
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18University of Washington0.95-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.6Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.51Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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9.22University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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9.12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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5.34Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.35Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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7.41Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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6.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.66U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.28University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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10.04Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
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5.8Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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12.41University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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11.58Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
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13.39University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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13.15Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
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14.89Texas A&M University1.310.0%1st Place
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15.53University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rolander | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Ian Barrows | 14.4% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Cornell | 8.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Erika Reineke | 12.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Thompson | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 6.2% |
| Silas Barton | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 3.5% |
| Mason Wolters | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 14.7% | 11.4% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 10.2% |
| Julian Martin | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 21.5% | 27.1% |
| Connor Hughes | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 19.9% | 38.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.