← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University4.08+4.56vs Predicted
-
2Boston College4.01+3.68vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+6.59vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+2.73vs Predicted
-
5Brown University3.48+2.35vs Predicted
-
6Georgetown University3.51+1.33vs Predicted
-
7Eckerd College2.82+2.92vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Naval Academy3.67-1.36vs Predicted
-
9Old Dominion University3.50-1.73vs Predicted
-
10University of South Florida3.59-2.74vs Predicted
-
11Tufts University3.49-3.51vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-2.72vs Predicted
-
13University of Miami2.08-0.60vs Predicted
-
14University of Michigan1.84-0.92vs Predicted
-
15Santa Barbara City College2.29-3.16vs Predicted
-
16Northwestern University1.93-2.83vs Predicted
-
17Texas A&M University1.31-2.12vs Predicted
-
18University of Washington0.95-2.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.56Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
-
5.68Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
-
9.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
-
6.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
-
7.35Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
-
7.33Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
-
9.92Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
-
6.64U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
7.27Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
-
7.26University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
-
7.49Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
-
9.28University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
-
12.4University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
-
13.08University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
-
11.84Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
-
13.17Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
-
14.88Texas A&M University1.310.0%1st Place
-
15.54University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 12.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 10.7% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Nikole Barnes | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Snow | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sean Cornell | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Rolander | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Max Thompson | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 6.5% |
| Mason Wolters | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 10.2% |
| Silas Barton | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 10.3% |
| Julian Martin | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 21.7% | 26.7% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 18.4% | 39.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.