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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+5.69vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.51+5.25vs Predicted
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3University of Miami2.08+9.58vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.59+2.67vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.01+0.37vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.48+1.17vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.49+0.17vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-1.50vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College2.82+0.70vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.13-1.26vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.84+2.31vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.56vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University1.31+1.56vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University1.95-1.38vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.50-7.93vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-7.17vs Predicted
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17Santa Barbara City College2.29-5.15vs Predicted
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18University of Washington0.95-2.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.69U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.25Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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12.58University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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6.67University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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5.37Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.17Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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7.17Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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6.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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9.7Eckerd College2.820.0%1st Place
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8.74Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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13.31University of Michigan1.840.0%1st Place
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9.44St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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14.56Texas A&M University1.310.0%1st Place
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12.62Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.07Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.83University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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11.85Santa Barbara City College2.290.0%1st Place
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15.48University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Snow | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Max Thompson | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 7.3% |
| Sean Cornell | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 14.4% | 13.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Rolander | 7.8% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nikole Barnes | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Schoene | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Mason Wolters | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 12.6% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 3.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Julian Martin | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 20.3% | 25.3% |
| Mark Davies | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 9.1% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Silas Barton | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 11.2% | 20.9% | 38.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.