← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University4.24+3.54vs Predicted
-
2University of South Florida2.92+7.05vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University2.89+6.05vs Predicted
-
4Brown University3.38+3.02vs Predicted
-
5Georgetown University3.81+0.62vs Predicted
-
6Tufts University3.47+0.80vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy3.63-0.81vs Predicted
-
8Eckerd College2.80+1.09vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-2.23vs Predicted
-
10Boston College3.73-3.94vs Predicted
-
11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-2.57vs Predicted
-
12Northwestern University1.24+2.53vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Santa Barbara2.95-4.47vs Predicted
-
14University of Michigan1.44-0.53vs Predicted
-
15University of Miami1.82-2.46vs Predicted
-
16University of Washington1.53-2.45vs Predicted
-
17Santa Barbara City College1.43-3.17vs Predicted
-
18Texas A&M University0.43-2.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.54Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
-
9.05University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
-
9.05Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
-
7.02Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
-
5.62Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
-
6.8Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
-
6.19U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
-
9.09Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
-
6.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
-
6.06Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
-
8.43St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
-
14.53Northwestern University1.240.0%1st Place
-
8.53University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
-
13.47University of Michigan1.440.0%1st Place
-
12.54University of Miami1.820.0%1st Place
-
13.55University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
-
13.83Santa Barbara City College1.430.0%1st Place
-
15.93Texas A&M University0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 16.0% | 14.6% | 14.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Baird | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 12.3% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Barbano | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 9.1% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Dana Rohde | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Sinks | 10.9% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Noah Rosenthal | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 19.5% | 18.9% |
| Stephen Long | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Colton Gerber | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 9.3% |
| Kyle Magno | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 8.5% | 5.2% |
| Nathaniel Gordon | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 9.1% |
| Soren Wilde | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 16.3% | 17.3% | 11.1% |
| Benjamin Lipari | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 18.4% | 45.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.