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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida2.92+7.99vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.63+4.44vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+5.84vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.47+2.70vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+1.80vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.38+1.16vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.73-1.14vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.24+6.13vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.89-0.15vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.24-5.44vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College2.80-1.67vs Predicted
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12University of Washington1.53+1.69vs Predicted
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13University of Miami1.82-0.60vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.44-0.51vs Predicted
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15Santa Barbara City College1.43-1.26vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-7.64vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University0.43-0.86vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University3.81-12.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.99University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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8.84University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.0%1st Place
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6.7Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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6.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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7.16Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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5.86Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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14.13Northwestern University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.85Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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4.56Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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9.33Eckerd College2.800.0%1st Place
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13.69University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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12.4University of Miami1.820.0%1st Place
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13.49University of Michigan1.440.0%1st Place
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13.74Santa Barbara City College1.430.0%1st Place
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8.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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16.14Texas A&M University0.430.0%1st Place
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5.51Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Baird | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Gary Prieto | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Scott Barbano | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Charles Sinks | 10.1% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Rosenthal | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 19.7% | 14.8% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.8% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason D'Agostino | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Nathaniel Gordon | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 16.7% | 16.1% | 10.0% |
| Kyle Magno | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 10.0% | 3.7% |
| Colton Gerber | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 15.6% | 10.0% |
| Soren Wilde | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 16.3% | 14.9% | 10.9% |
| Carolyn Smith | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Lipari | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 17.9% | 49.5% |
| Sean Segerblom | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.