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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+3.17vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+2.57vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.68+4.01vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+1.33vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.50+2.51vs Predicted
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6Drexel University0.72+7.16vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.96vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.29+0.15vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.74+1.20vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.63-2.92vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-3.13vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.43-4.18vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.32-4.65vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.21+0.23vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University-0.23-0.04vs Predicted
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16Villanova University1.24-4.31vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University-0.10-2.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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4.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.2%1st Place
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7.01University of Pennsylvania2.680.1%1st Place
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5.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.51Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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13.16Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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6.04U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.15Washington College2.290.1%1st Place
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10.2George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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7.08SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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7.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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7.82Columbia University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.35Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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14.23Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.96Monmouth University-0.230.0%1st Place
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11.69Villanova University1.240.0%1st Place
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14.86Rutgers University-0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kana | 19.5% | 16.3% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 15.1% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 13.1% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 5.1% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jason Sinclair | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 16.6% | 18.9% | 16.7% | 8.6% |
| Lukas Edegran | 9.0% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Irene Jacqz | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Blair Davis | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 20.3% | 23.5% | 19.6% |
| Matthew Marciano | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 13.5% | 23.6% | 36.4% |
| Sarah Celone | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 14.6% | 7.3% | 2.4% |
| Tim Gorzelnik | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 23.7% | 31.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.