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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+6.75vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.74+7.22vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.51+7.29vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.59+5.51vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+5.43vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+3.46vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.49+3.08vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.52+1.88vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+2.98vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston4.09-2.28vs Predicted
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11Yale University4.08-3.34vs Predicted
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12Boston College4.01-3.82vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.71-4.00vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.48-4.21vs Predicted
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15Boston University3.24-3.87vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College3.61-6.37vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.49-6.77vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy3.67-8.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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9.22Stanford University3.740.0%1st Place
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10.29Georgetown University3.510.0%1st Place
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9.51University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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10.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
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9.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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10.08George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.88Fordham University3.520.0%1st Place
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11.98University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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7.72College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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7.66Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.18Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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9.0Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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9.79Brown University3.480.0%1st Place
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11.13Boston University3.240.0%1st Place
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9.63Dartmouth College3.610.0%1st Place
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10.23Tufts University3.490.0%1st Place
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9.05U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Will La Dow | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 5.8% |
| Sean Cornell | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% |
| Charles Lomax | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 10.1% |
| Nikole Barnes | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% |
| Will Holz | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 14.8% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Ian Barrows | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Erika Reineke | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| Martim Anderson | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% |
| Ravi Parent | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 10.8% | 10.1% |
| Charles Lalumiere | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% |
| John Rolander | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.