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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University0.97+7.10vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.35+4.47vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.82+1.74vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.16+0.40vs Predicted
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5Penn State University1.13+3.12vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.67+2.13vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.70-1.47vs Predicted
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8Hampton University0.58-1.08vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.59-3.12vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.73-1.50vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.60-1.84vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92-3.87vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.21-1.31vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland-0.45-2.18vs Predicted
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15American University-0.66-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.1Old Dominion University0.975.8%1st Place
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6.47U. S. Naval Academy1.358.6%1st Place
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4.74George Washington University1.8214.1%1st Place
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4.4U. S. Naval Academy2.1617.8%1st Place
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8.12Penn State University1.134.8%1st Place
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8.13Virginia Tech0.675.5%1st Place
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5.53St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7010.7%1st Place
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6.92Hampton University0.586.7%1st Place
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5.88Old Dominion University1.599.2%1st Place
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8.5Christopher Newport University0.734.4%1st Place
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9.16Christopher Newport University0.603.2%1st Place
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8.13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.925.2%1st Place
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11.69William and Mary-0.211.2%1st Place
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11.82University of Maryland-0.451.9%1st Place
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12.41American University-0.660.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianna Dewey | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Leo Robillard | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 14.1% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 17.8% | 14.4% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| James Lilyquist | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Mason Cook | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| Aston Atherton | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 5.1% |
| Scott Opert | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 20.9% | 22.0% |
| Sophie Grigg | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 20.7% | 25.8% |
| James Cottage | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 19.5% | 35.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.