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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+9.38vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.08+5.38vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston4.09+4.39vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.82vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.49+4.64vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.71+2.80vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+0.21vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.52+1.49vs Predicted
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9Boston College4.01-1.59vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.490.00vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.74-2.17vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-2.54vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-1.60vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.48-4.51vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University3.51-5.37vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.97-4.01vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida2.54-3.32vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College3.38-8.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
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7.38Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.39College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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8.82U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.64George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.8Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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7.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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9.49Fordham University3.520.0%1st Place
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7.41Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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10.0Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.83Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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11.4University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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9.49Brown University3.480.0%1st Place
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9.63Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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11.99Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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13.68University of South Florida2.540.0%1st Place
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10.0Dartmouth College3.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lomax | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 5.9% |
| Ian Barrows | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% |
| Martim Anderson | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Will Holz | 4.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| Erika Reineke | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| John Rolander | 5.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.0% |
| Will La Dow | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.5% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 3.4% |
| Robby Gearon | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 15.2% |
| Michael Trebilcock | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 28.3% |
| Robert Floyd | 4.7% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.