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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.09+6.41vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.52+7.87vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.35vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+7.33vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.97+6.73vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+4.26vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.71+1.77vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.74+0.61vs Predicted
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9Yale University4.08-1.87vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.38+0.45vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.51-1.21vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-2.53vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.67-4.22vs Predicted
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14Boston College4.01-6.78vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.49-5.29vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida2.54-2.31vs Predicted
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17George Washington University3.49-7.13vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.48-8.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.41College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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9.87Fordham University3.520.0%1st Place
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7.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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11.33University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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11.73Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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10.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
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8.77Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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8.61Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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7.13Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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10.45Dartmouth College3.380.1%1st Place
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9.79Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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9.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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8.78U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.22Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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9.71Tufts University3.490.0%1st Place
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13.69University of South Florida2.540.0%1st Place
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9.87George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.56Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Peschiera | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Will Holz | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.4% |
| Robby Gearon | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 12.0% | 13.1% |
| Charles Lomax | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% |
| Martim Anderson | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Will La Dow | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| Ian Barrows | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Robert Floyd | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 5.5% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% |
| Nikole Barnes | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% |
| Patrick Snow | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% |
| Erika Reineke | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| John Rolander | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% |
| Michael Trebilcock | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 13.5% | 28.8% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.