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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+8.28vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.08+5.41vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.52+6.84vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+3.15vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.97+6.76vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston4.09+1.19vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+3.18vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.71+0.71vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.48+0.79vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.75vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.38-0.60vs Predicted
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12Boston College4.01-4.15vs Predicted
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13George Washington University3.49-3.43vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.74-5.60vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University3.51-5.39vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida2.64-2.70vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.49-7.06vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-6.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.41Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.84Fordham University3.520.0%1st Place
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7.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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11.76Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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7.19College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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10.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
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8.71Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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9.79Brown University3.480.0%1st Place
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9.25U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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10.4Dartmouth College3.380.0%1st Place
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7.85Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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9.57George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.4Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.61Georgetown University3.510.0%1st Place
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13.3University of South Florida2.640.0%1st Place
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9.94Tufts University3.490.0%1st Place
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11.36University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikole Barnes | 5.9% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| Ian Barrows | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Will Holz | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Robby Gearon | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 13.6% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Charles Lomax | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| Patrick Snow | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Robert Floyd | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% |
| Erika Reineke | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Will La Dow | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Campbell D'Eliscu | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.9% |
| Brendan Feeney | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 25.9% |
| John Rolander | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.