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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.25+9.58vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.84+5.98vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.77+5.35vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.53+5.03vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.42+4.53vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.81+1.92vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.47+2.38vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.38+1.70vs Predicted
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9Yale University4.24-2.88vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-0.18vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-1.08vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida2.92+0.14vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.63-4.47vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.17-3.60vs Predicted
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15George Washington University3.41-5.41vs Predicted
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16Boston College3.73-7.70vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-4.67vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara2.95-6.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.58Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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7.98College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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8.35Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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9.03Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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9.53Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.92Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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9.38Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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9.7Brown University3.380.0%1st Place
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6.12Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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9.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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12.14University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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10.4Stanford University3.170.0%1st Place
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9.59George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.3Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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12.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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11.39University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% |
| Jack Cusick | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% |
| Hannah Polster | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.1% |
| Sean Segerblom | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| Scott Barbano | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Dana Rohde | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 3.6% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% |
| Andrew Baird | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 16.1% |
| Gary Prieto | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% |
| Kai Friesecke | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% |
| Charles Sinks | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 16.9% |
| Stephen Long | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 11.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.