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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.84+6.11vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.77+5.47vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.81+4.37vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.53+4.61vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.63+2.91vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+3.27vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+4.38vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.41+0.83vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida2.92+2.22vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.24-4.30vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.47-2.05vs Predicted
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12Boston College3.35-2.77vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.93-1.82vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.38-4.68vs Predicted
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15Fordham University3.25-5.36vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.95-5.08vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-8.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.11College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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7.47Roger Williams University3.770.1%1st Place
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7.37Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.61Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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7.91U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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9.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.0%1st Place
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11.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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8.83George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.22University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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5.7Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.95Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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9.23Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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11.18Stanford University2.930.0%1st Place
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9.32Brown University3.380.0%1st Place
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9.64Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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10.92University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.0%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Cusick | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Mackenzie Bryan | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Sean Segerblom | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% |
| Gary Prieto | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% |
| Hector Guzman | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 14.4% |
| Kai Friesecke | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| Andrew Baird | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.6% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.9% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Scott Barbano | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% |
| Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 14.1% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.2% |
| Stephen Long | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 13.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.