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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University0.71+7.32vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+6.13vs Predicted
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3George Washington University0.93+4.39vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.14+1.59vs Predicted
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5Maine Maritime Academy-0.48+6.87vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University-1.38-1.55vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin0.70+1.12vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island0.99-1.53vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85-1.54vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College-0.13+0.94vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College1.13-4.89vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-0.80vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.48-4.66vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.65-4.84vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University0.01-4.88vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.64-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.32Fordham University0.714.9%1st Place
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8.13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.675.6%1st Place
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7.39George Washington University0.937.1%1st Place
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5.59Boston University1.1413.4%1st Place
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11.87Maine Maritime Academy-0.481.8%1st Place
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4.45Jacksonville University-1.3817.3%1st Place
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8.12University of Wisconsin0.705.8%1st Place
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6.47University of Rhode Island0.998.5%1st Place
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7.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.856.4%1st Place
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10.94Connecticut College-0.132.4%1st Place
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6.11Bowdoin College1.1310.0%1st Place
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11.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.5%1st Place
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8.34University of Vermont0.484.9%1st Place
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9.16Christopher Newport University0.654.5%1st Place
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10.12North Carolina State University0.013.3%1st Place
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12.32University of Michigan-0.641.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Tiare Sierra | 13.4% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Simone Ford | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 21.6% |
| Emily Allen | 17.3% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mary Castellini | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Julia Conneely | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Lilly Saffer | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 14.4% |
| Rebecca Schill | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 14.4% |
| Audrey Commerford | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| Lyla Solway | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 25.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.