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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.38+2.34vs Predicted
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2Cornell University3.27+1.44vs Predicted
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3University of Rochester0.42+6.22vs Predicted
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4University of Rochester0.42+5.22vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-1.88vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60-1.24vs Predicted
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7University of Buffalo0.79+1.48vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.95-1.97vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.82-4.77vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.69-3.45vs Predicted
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11Drexel University0.20-1.43vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.00-1.95vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University0.43-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34U. S. Naval Academy3.380.2%1st Place
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3.44Cornell University3.270.2%1st Place
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9.22University of Rochester0.420.0%1st Place
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9.22University of Rochester0.420.0%1st Place
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3.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.2%1st Place
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4.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.1%1st Place
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8.48University of Buffalo0.790.0%1st Place
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6.03Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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4.23Fordham University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.55University of Pennsylvania1.690.0%1st Place
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9.57Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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10.05Columbia University-0.000.0%1st Place
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9.21Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Vann | 19.4% | 19.0% | 19.4% | 15.3% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 20.2% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 15.7% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Troche | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 18.2% | 20.1% | 17.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Troche | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 18.2% | 20.1% | 17.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 22.8% | 22.8% | 17.1% | 14.2% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Potter Hodgson | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 14.7% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Handler | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 17.6% | 19.0% | 14.7% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 14.8% | 17.2% | 13.3% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gardner | 14.7% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Pilling | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 16.6% | 17.6% | 13.0% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 16.6% | 20.8% | 23.4% | 0.0% |
| William Ford | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 16.2% | 19.3% | 34.7% | 0.0% |
| Harmen Rockler | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 11.7% | 15.8% | 17.2% | 20.2% | 16.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.