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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.53+8.05vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.63+6.56vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.42+6.52vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+5.06vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.73+2.90vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+6.25vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.41+2.32vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.84-0.58vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.38+0.45vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-0.33vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.47-1.81vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.25-1.58vs Predicted
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13Yale University4.24-7.18vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University3.81-6.69vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida2.92-3.58vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.94-4.58vs Predicted
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17Stanford University2.93-5.43vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-6.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.05Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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9.52Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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7.9Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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12.25University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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9.32George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.42College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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9.45Brown University3.380.0%1st Place
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9.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.19Tufts University3.470.1%1st Place
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10.42Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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5.82Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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7.31Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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11.42University of South Florida2.920.0%1st Place
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11.42Roger Williams University2.940.0%1st Place
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11.57Stanford University2.930.0%1st Place
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11.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Williford | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% |
| Gary Prieto | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Hannah Polster | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| Dana Rohde | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% |
| Charles Sinks | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Sterling Henken | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 18.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| Jack Cusick | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% |
| Scott Barbano | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 5.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.8% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Baird | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 11.3% |
| Michael Gemperline | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 11.3% |
| Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.8% |
| Max Neubelt | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.