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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+2.11vs Predicted
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2Cornell University3.27+1.47vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.38+0.26vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.82+0.31vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60-0.28vs Predicted
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6University of Rochester0.99+1.98vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester0.99+0.98vs Predicted
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8Columbia University-0.00+1.53vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.95-3.01vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.79-1.74vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.69-4.45vs Predicted
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12Drexel University0.20-2.53vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.39-1.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.2%1st Place
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3.47Cornell University3.270.2%1st Place
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3.26U. S. Naval Academy3.380.2%1st Place
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4.31Fordham University2.820.1%1st Place
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4.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.1%1st Place
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7.98University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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7.98University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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9.53Columbia University-0.000.0%1st Place
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5.99Queen's University1.950.1%1st Place
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8.26University of Buffalo0.790.0%1st Place
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6.55University of Pennsylvania1.690.0%1st Place
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9.47Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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11.34Syracuse University-1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Holtzworth | 22.1% | 21.4% | 19.4% | 15.2% | 11.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 19.0% | 17.9% | 18.5% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 21.3% | 21.0% | 17.2% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gardner | 10.6% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 16.6% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Potter Hodgson | 10.4% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 16.4% | 19.9% | 18.9% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 16.4% | 19.9% | 18.9% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| William Ford | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 14.2% | 20.9% | 30.6% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Throop | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 15.3% | 16.3% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Handler | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 21.3% | 18.2% | 13.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| William Pilling | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 18.5% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 23.2% | 28.8% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| Louise Browning | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 12.6% | 73.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.