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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.53+6.40vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+3.07vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+4.85vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+4.21vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.60+2.31vs Predicted
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6George Washington University3.41+2.07vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College3.56+0.53vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.82+2.08vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.70+1.60vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.24-1.32vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.69-0.39vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-3.52vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.72-2.47vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.31-2.11vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.71-8.01vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-9.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.4Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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5.07Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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7.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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8.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
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7.31Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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8.07George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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7.53Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.08Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
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10.6University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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8.68Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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10.61SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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8.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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10.53University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
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11.89Northeastern University2.310.0%1st Place
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6.99Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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6.69Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Williford | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.9% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Dana Rohde | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Charles Lomax | 4.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.5% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Kai Friesecke | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Jack Bitney | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 9.9% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 13.2% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Kyle Comerford | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 14.7% |
| Liam McCarthy | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% |
| Patrick Isherwood | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 13.5% |
| Gregory Corsello | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 14.7% | 25.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.