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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+6.67vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+6.35vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+2.05vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.70+6.80vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.24+3.69vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.56+1.49vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.71+0.05vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.60-0.84vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.72+1.47vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-1.81vs Predicted
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11George Washington University3.41-2.99vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.31-0.07vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.82-2.81vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.53-6.54vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.69-4.17vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-9.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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8.35St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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5.05Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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10.8University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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8.69Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.49Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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7.05Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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7.16Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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10.47University of Rhode Island2.720.0%1st Place
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8.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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8.01George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.93Northeastern University2.310.0%1st Place
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10.19Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
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7.46Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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10.83SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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6.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dana Rohde | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| Liam McCarthy | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.7% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 14.9% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Martim Anderson | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Nick Sertl | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Patrick Isherwood | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.4% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% |
| Kai Friesecke | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 2.1% |
| Gregory Corsello | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 26.7% |
| Jack Bitney | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.9% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| Kyle Comerford | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 12.8% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.