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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.46vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+4.24vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.39+6.94vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.97+3.92vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.93+2.91vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.13+1.21vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.97+0.87vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.23-1.35vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.20-2.17vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.05+1.17vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.19-4.06vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.74-0.01vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-2.20vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-7.26vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.58-5.69vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.79-3.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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9.94Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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7.92Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.91University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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7.21Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.87Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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6.65Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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6.83Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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11.17SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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6.94Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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11.99University of Vermont1.740.0%1st Place
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10.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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6.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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9.31George Washington University2.580.0%1st Place
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12.02Northeastern University1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Byerly | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Trevor Long | 10.4% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% |
| Christian Filter | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Luke Ingalls | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Robby Gearon | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Conner Harding | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 15.1% |
| Duncan Williford | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Peter Schneider | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 25.6% |
| Garrett Lawlor | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 12.5% |
| Mack Fox | 9.5% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Miranda Bakos | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| Zachary Bresnick | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 24.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.