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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.58vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37+4.36vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.19+4.07vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.97+4.02vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.20+2.03vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.79+6.08vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.93+1.10vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.39+1.91vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.23-2.15vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.97-2.07vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.13-3.73vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-4.90vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.72-4.20vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.74-1.89vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-5.57vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.05-4.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.36Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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7.07Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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8.02Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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7.03Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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12.08Northeastern University1.790.0%1st Place
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8.1University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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9.91Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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6.85Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.93Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.27Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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8.8George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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12.11University of Vermont1.740.0%1st Place
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9.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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11.35SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Byerly | 8.6% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Trevor Long | 10.1% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| Duncan Williford | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Robby Gearon | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Zachary Bresnick | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 16.0% | 25.4% |
| Luke Ingalls | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% |
| Conner Harding | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Christian Filter | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Mack Fox | 9.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% |
| Peter Schneider | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 26.4% |
| Ryan Hunter | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 5.3% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 15.4% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.