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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University0.26+8.27vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University-1.38+2.36vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island0.99+3.35vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.65+4.95vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+2.75vs Predicted
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6George Washington University0.93+1.10vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin0.70+1.05vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College-0.13+2.87vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.13-2.88vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+0.64vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.14-5.58vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy-0.48-0.53vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.71-4.72vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.64-2.05vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.76-2.69vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85-8.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.27North Carolina State University0.263.8%1st Place
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4.36Jacksonville University-1.3817.3%1st Place
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6.35University of Rhode Island0.997.8%1st Place
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8.95Christopher Newport University0.654.2%1st Place
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7.75St. Mary's College of Maryland0.676.2%1st Place
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7.1George Washington University0.938.4%1st Place
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8.05University of Wisconsin0.705.5%1st Place
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10.87Connecticut College-0.132.9%1st Place
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6.12Bowdoin College1.1310.6%1st Place
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10.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.3%1st Place
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5.42Boston University1.1411.8%1st Place
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11.47Maine Maritime Academy-0.482.2%1st Place
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8.28Fordham University0.715.8%1st Place
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11.95University of Michigan-0.642.1%1st Place
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12.31University of Vermont-0.761.8%1st Place
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7.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.857.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evelyn Hannah | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% |
| Emily Allen | 17.3% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Mary Castellini | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Lilly Saffer | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 10.4% |
| Rebecca Schill | 10.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 10.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 11.8% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Simone Ford | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 17.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| Jordynn Johnson | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 27.4% |
| Julia Conneely | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.