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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.10+1.96vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.48+1.01vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.95+1.19vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.67-2.78vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.98+1.08vs Predicted
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7Drexel University0.55+1.03vs Predicted
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8Queen's University0.88-0.85vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-0.05-0.04vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester-0.05-1.04vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University0.38-2.61vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.85-6.85vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.02-6.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.100.2%1st Place
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4.01Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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5.19University of Pennsylvania1.950.1%1st Place
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2.22U. S. Naval Academy3.670.4%1st Place
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7.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.980.0%1st Place
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8.03Drexel University0.550.0%1st Place
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7.15Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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8.96University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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8.96University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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8.39Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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5.15Fordham University1.850.1%1st Place
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6.86Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Butti | 21.7% | 23.1% | 20.6% | 17.9% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 12.8% | 13.3% | 18.2% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Johns | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 38.5% | 27.6% | 18.3% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Wood | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Edward Doran | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 18.2% | 17.6% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Blake | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 16.9% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 19.5% | 35.6% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 19.5% | 35.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 20.3% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 6.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 14.5% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 2.3% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 16.2% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.