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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.16vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.10+0.87vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.85+2.36vs Predicted
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4Queen's University0.88+3.37vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.48-1.05vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.95-0.99vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University-0.01+1.75vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.98-1.11vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-0.05+0.06vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.02-3.15vs Predicted
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11Drexel University0.55-3.28vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester-0.05-2.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.16U. S. Naval Academy3.670.4%1st Place
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2.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.100.2%1st Place
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5.36Fordham University1.850.1%1st Place
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7.37Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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3.95Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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5.01University of Pennsylvania1.950.1%1st Place
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8.75Syracuse University-0.010.0%1st Place
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6.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.980.0%1st Place
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9.06University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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6.85Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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7.72Drexel University0.550.0%1st Place
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9.06University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 38.9% | 27.6% | 19.1% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Butti | 23.9% | 24.4% | 20.3% | 14.6% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 6.2% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Blake | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 15.8% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 12.4% | 15.6% | 17.3% | 17.4% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Johns | 6.7% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 16.8% | 16.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kenneth Walz | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 20.5% | 30.7% | 0.0% |
| Alex Wood | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 21.2% | 36.8% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 16.6% | 15.5% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Edward Doran | 1.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 17.1% | 17.3% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 21.2% | 36.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.