Race 4A

fall-fury

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Ryder Easterlin 19.4% 22.7% 18.4% 15.9% 11.8% 7.3% 3.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlie Kutschenreuter 30.4% 24.5% 18.0% 12.9% 8.0% 4.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Carolyn Keck 13.5% 14.9% 16.4% 16.3% 14.8% 13.9% 6.8% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Ryan Clulo 8.6% 10.1% 12.6% 12.4% 17.7% 15.5% 12.0% 7.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Michael Valverde 4.0% 3.4% 5.4% 6.6% 8.6% 11.4% 19.0% 19.3% 15.3% 6.2% 0.8%
Elliot Lee 9.3% 9.8% 11.5% 14.5% 15.9% 15.8% 11.3% 7.8% 3.0% 1.0% 0.1%
Katherine O'Donnell 10.2% 10.1% 12.3% 13.4% 14.1% 14.3% 14.5% 7.6% 2.8% 0.7% 0.0%
Caroline Ritter 1.8% 0.9% 1.1% 3.0% 2.7% 4.9% 10.6% 17.7% 22.6% 22.8% 11.9%
Stefan Peterson 1.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.4% 3.7% 7.5% 12.6% 23.1% 23.0% 14.1% 5.0%
Caitlin Chenus 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 1.6% 2.5% 4.5% 7.4% 16.4% 28.0% 36.9%
Geoffrey Montour 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% 2.6% 3.5% 5.6% 13.6% 26.4% 45.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.