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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.15vs Predicted
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2University of Rochester-0.05+7.39vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.48+0.97vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.10-1.06vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.85+0.27vs Predicted
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6Queen's University0.88+1.44vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.98+0.09vs Predicted
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8Drexel University0.55+0.11vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.95-4.06vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.79-2.47vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-0.05-1.61vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University0.38-3.39vs Predicted
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13Columbia University-0.77-2.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.15U. S. Naval Academy3.670.4%1st Place
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9.39University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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3.97Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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2.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.100.2%1st Place
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5.27Fordham University1.850.1%1st Place
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7.44Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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7.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.980.0%1st Place
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8.11Drexel University0.550.0%1st Place
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4.94University of Pennsylvania1.950.1%1st Place
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7.53University of Buffalo0.790.0%1st Place
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9.39University of Rochester-0.050.0%1st Place
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8.61Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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10.59Columbia University-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.0% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 24.5% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 13.6% | 13.9% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.1% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Butti | 22.0% | 23.7% | 20.8% | 16.8% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 5.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Blake | 2.4% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Wood | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Doran | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 16.0% | 14.6% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Christina Johns | 6.1% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 15.9% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Ventrilla | 1.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 15.9% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Joe Franco | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 24.5% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Barczewski | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 17.7% | 51.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.