Race 11B

fall-fury

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Erin Sullivan 21.2% 22.4% 19.1% 17.3% 10.8% 5.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
August Nagro 3.9% 4.5% 6.6% 8.9% 11.4% 16.7% 17.8% 14.7% 10.9% 4.0% 0.6%
Zachary Herron 11.6% 12.6% 16.8% 15.6% 16.8% 15.3% 6.9% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Cailin Oakes 8.1% 10.4% 12.1% 13.8% 18.3% 15.9% 12.3% 6.1% 2.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Mason Chrabaszcz 15.6% 16.4% 15.6% 17.3% 14.8% 10.9% 6.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Noah Janssen 30.8% 25.6% 19.6% 10.0% 7.8% 4.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Joseph Kurta 4.2% 4.6% 4.2% 8.1% 8.1% 13.9% 19.6% 18.2% 12.0% 5.2% 1.9%
Emily Vogt 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% 2.6% 3.6% 5.0% 10.4% 15.5% 20.7% 24.3% 14.1%
Dylan Sabo 1.2% 0.8% 1.4% 2.2% 2.3% 4.1% 6.6% 13.2% 17.7% 27.6% 22.9%
Alex Hoffmann 1.5% 1.5% 2.7% 3.5% 5.3% 5.7% 12.2% 20.1% 22.4% 17.3% 7.8%
Haley Beube 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 2.8% 3.9% 5.3% 11.7% 21.1% 52.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.