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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+1.40vs Predicted
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2Cornell University3.14+0.93vs Predicted
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3Villanova University0.26+6.25vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.11+1.05vs Predicted
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5Columbia University0.51+3.85vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.33+0.98vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.43-2.75vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.15-0.72vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.42-2.28vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.74-4.07vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo-0.99+0.79vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University0.55-3.28vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo-0.99-1.21vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.35-1.69vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-0.90-4.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.4%1st Place
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2.93Cornell University3.140.2%1st Place
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9.25Villanova University0.260.0%1st Place
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5.05Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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8.85Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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6.98Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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4.25Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.28Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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6.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.420.0%1st Place
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5.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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11.79University of Buffalo-0.990.0%1st Place
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8.72Syracuse University0.550.0%1st Place
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11.79University of Buffalo-0.990.0%1st Place
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13.31Penn State University-2.350.0%1st Place
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11.53U. S. Military Academy-0.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 35.7% | 26.5% | 17.6% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 24.6% | 22.8% | 19.5% | 15.3% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Curtis Aaron | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 17.4% | 17.3% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 6.7% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Edwards | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 11.6% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Zane Tinnell | 3.5% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 12.2% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 15.0% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 2.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra Mares | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Devin Keister | 4.9% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Wyles | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 21.3% | 35.9% | 14.2% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Warner | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 16.2% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Austin Wyles | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 21.3% | 35.9% | 14.2% | 0.0% |
| Tiffany Snyder | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 14.2% | 71.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hare | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 12.2% | 23.7% | 31.4% | 11.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.