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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+1.37vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.43+2.18vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.11+2.01vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.14-0.98vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.74+0.98vs Predicted
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6Villanova University0.26+3.53vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University0.55+1.53vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.33-1.17vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.15-1.64vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.42-3.27vs Predicted
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11Columbia University0.51-2.17vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo-0.99-0.22vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo-0.99-1.22vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-0.90-2.47vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-2.35-2.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.4%1st Place
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4.18Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.01Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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3.02Cornell University3.140.2%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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9.53Villanova University0.260.0%1st Place
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8.53Syracuse University0.550.0%1st Place
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6.83Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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7.36Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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6.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.420.0%1st Place
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8.83Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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11.78University of Buffalo-0.990.0%1st Place
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11.78University of Buffalo-0.990.0%1st Place
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11.53U. S. Military Academy-0.900.0%1st Place
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13.33Penn State University-2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 37.4% | 25.5% | 17.1% | 10.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 11.8% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 16.9% | 15.0% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 8.4% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 23.3% | 22.5% | 20.0% | 14.2% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Devin Keister | 3.9% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Curtis Aaron | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 16.9% | 16.6% | 17.7% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Warner | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 18.2% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Zane Tinnell | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra Mares | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Edwards | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 16.9% | 15.9% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Austin Wyles | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 10.9% | 23.2% | 33.7% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
| Austin Wyles | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 10.9% | 23.2% | 33.7% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hare | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 11.8% | 22.8% | 30.8% | 13.1% | 0.0% |
| Tiffany Snyder | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 6.0% | 16.7% | 69.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.