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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.42+5.64vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.43+2.28vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-0.67vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.15+3.30vs Predicted
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5Cornell University3.14-1.92vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.74-0.01vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.33-0.33vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University0.55+0.66vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.11-3.90vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.51-1.09vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo-0.99+0.79vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy-0.90-0.35vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-2.35+0.27vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo-0.99-2.21vs Predicted
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15Villanova University0.26-5.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.420.0%1st Place
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4.28Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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2.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.4%1st Place
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7.3Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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3.08Cornell University3.140.2%1st Place
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5.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.740.1%1st Place
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6.67Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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8.66Syracuse University0.550.0%1st Place
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5.1Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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8.91Columbia University0.510.0%1st Place
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11.79University of Buffalo-0.990.0%1st Place
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11.65U. S. Military Academy-0.900.0%1st Place
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13.27Penn State University-2.350.0%1st Place
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11.79University of Buffalo-0.990.0%1st Place
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9.34Villanova University0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Mares | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 11.0% | 14.8% | 15.2% | 15.1% | 15.7% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 40.0% | 23.4% | 16.2% | 10.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 19.9% | 24.6% | 21.8% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Devin Keister | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zane Tinnell | 3.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Warner | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 17.3% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Edwards | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 14.9% | 17.1% | 12.6% | 4.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Austin Wyles | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 10.3% | 21.2% | 36.4% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hare | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 12.7% | 24.3% | 29.6% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Tiffany Snyder | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 7.1% | 16.1% | 69.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Wyles | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 10.3% | 21.2% | 36.4% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Curtis Aaron | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 16.2% | 19.0% | 15.1% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.