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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.20vs Predicted
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2University of Buffalo0.79+5.80vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.48+1.04vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University-0.01+5.51vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.85+0.42vs Predicted
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6Drexel University0.55+2.37vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.10-4.03vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.95-2.87vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.98-1.76vs Predicted
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10Columbia University-0.77+0.66vs Predicted
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11Queen's University0.88-3.29vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester1.17-5.04vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester1.17-6.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.2U. S. Naval Academy3.670.4%1st Place
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7.8University of Buffalo0.790.0%1st Place
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4.04Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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9.51Syracuse University-0.010.0%1st Place
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5.42Fordham University1.850.1%1st Place
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8.37Drexel University0.550.0%1st Place
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2.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.100.2%1st Place
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5.13University of Pennsylvania1.950.1%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.980.0%1st Place
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10.66Columbia University-0.770.0%1st Place
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7.71Queen's University0.880.0%1st Place
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6.96University of Rochester1.170.0%1st Place
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6.96University of Rochester1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 37.7% | 28.2% | 19.7% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Ventrilla | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 16.6% | 11.9% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 12.4% | 14.6% | 16.0% | 17.2% | 15.2% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kenneth Walz | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 25.0% | 21.8% | 0.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 5.7% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Edward Doran | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 17.8% | 15.8% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| Alex Butti | 24.5% | 22.2% | 21.1% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Johns | 7.3% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Wood | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Ben Barczewski | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 55.6% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Blake | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 15.5% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.