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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.54+2.70vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+1.84vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.95+1.99vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+1.27vs Predicted
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5Columbia University0.14+4.14vs Predicted
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6Villanova University0.72+1.98vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.87-2.00vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.50-4.22vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.53-2.97vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute0.81-2.21vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-0.16-1.24vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo-2.07+0.57vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-1.95-0.68vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-2.41-1.16vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo-2.07-3.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.7Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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3.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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4.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.950.1%1st Place
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5.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.1%1st Place
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9.14Columbia University0.140.0%1st Place
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7.98Villanova University0.720.0%1st Place
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5.0Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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3.78Cornell University2.500.2%1st Place
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6.03Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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7.79Webb Institute0.810.0%1st Place
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9.76Syracuse University-0.160.0%1st Place
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12.57University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
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12.32U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
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12.84Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
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12.57University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Kelter | 19.0% | 19.9% | 14.9% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 17.3% | 14.9% | 16.8% | 15.8% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Morin | 10.3% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 7.6% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antonia Leggett | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 19.1% | 24.1% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Miller | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 17.5% | 17.4% | 12.0% | 4.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 14.0% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 18.6% | 16.4% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hunt | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 17.5% | 17.2% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Howard-Flanders | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 13.1% | 17.9% | 29.2% | 14.4% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 23.2% | 32.1% | 30.7% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 27.1% | 30.1% | 25.2% | 0.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 16.8% | 28.5% | 43.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 23.2% | 32.1% | 30.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.