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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.97vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.95+2.83vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.50+0.79vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+1.32vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.54-1.20vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.53+0.07vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.87-2.04vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute0.81-0.37vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.14+0.19vs Predicted
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10Villanova University0.72-2.00vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-0.16-1.27vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo-2.07+0.56vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-1.95-0.68vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo-2.07-1.44vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.41-2.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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4.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.950.1%1st Place
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3.79Cornell University2.500.2%1st Place
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5.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.1%1st Place
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3.8Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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6.07Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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4.96Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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7.63Webb Institute0.810.0%1st Place
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9.19Columbia University0.140.0%1st Place
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8.0Villanova University0.720.0%1st Place
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9.73Syracuse University-0.160.0%1st Place
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12.56University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
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12.32U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
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12.56University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
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12.84Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 16.8% | 16.2% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Morin | 11.4% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 18.1% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 15.9% | 18.5% | 16.6% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hunt | 4.6% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 16.8% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antonia Leggett | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 13.7% | 22.9% | 23.3% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Miller | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 18.5% | 18.4% | 12.5% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Howard-Flanders | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 17.4% | 28.3% | 14.7% | 5.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 24.4% | 31.4% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 8.2% | 27.1% | 29.6% | 25.4% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 24.4% | 31.4% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 17.1% | 28.8% | 42.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.