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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.53+4.62vs Predicted
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2Columbia University0.14+6.51vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.82vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.87+1.00vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.50-1.30vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.54-2.38vs Predicted
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7Villanova University0.72+0.28vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.95-3.24vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-1.01+1.70vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84-4.91vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo-2.07+1.34vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute-0.47-2.18vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy-1.95-1.96vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo-2.07-2.66vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-2.41-3.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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8.51Columbia University0.140.0%1st Place
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3.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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5.0Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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3.7Cornell University2.500.2%1st Place
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3.62Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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7.28Villanova University0.720.0%1st Place
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4.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.950.1%1st Place
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10.7Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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5.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.1%1st Place
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12.34University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
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9.82Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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12.04U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
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12.34University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
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12.67Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.8% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 15.3% | 13.1% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antonia Leggett | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 22.2% | 19.0% | 14.6% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 18.7% | 17.0% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 17.3% | 19.2% | 16.8% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 20.2% | 17.0% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Miller | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 18.7% | 20.4% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Morin | 12.3% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 15.9% | 25.0% | 24.5% | 10.7% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 19.5% | 27.7% | 29.9% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 14.1% | 24.4% | 21.4% | 13.5% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 6.6% | 13.5% | 19.6% | 30.7% | 21.3% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 19.5% | 27.7% | 29.9% | 0.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 16.0% | 24.2% | 42.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.