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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.54+2.56vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.53+3.57vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.77vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.87+1.01vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+0.15vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.50-2.23vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.95-2.40vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.14+0.56vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-1.01+1.68vs Predicted
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10Villanova University0.72-2.47vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo-2.07+1.34vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute-0.47-2.23vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-1.95-0.97vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.41-2.34vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo-2.07-3.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.56Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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5.57Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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3.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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5.01Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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5.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.1%1st Place
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3.77Cornell University2.500.2%1st Place
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4.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.950.1%1st Place
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8.56Columbia University0.140.0%1st Place
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10.68Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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7.53Villanova University0.720.0%1st Place
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12.34University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
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9.77Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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12.03U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
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12.66Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
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12.34University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Kelter | 20.7% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 12.9% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 18.0% | 17.8% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 8.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 18.0% | 16.5% | 15.1% | 16.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Morin | 12.1% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antonia Leggett | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 20.1% | 21.5% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 16.7% | 24.8% | 24.2% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Miller | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 19.7% | 21.3% | 13.7% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 19.2% | 27.6% | 29.9% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 16.1% | 21.9% | 21.4% | 13.5% | 5.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 14.6% | 19.4% | 30.0% | 21.3% | 0.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 23.9% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 19.2% | 27.6% | 29.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.