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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.54+2.58vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.50+1.52vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.83vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+1.04vs Predicted
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5Columbia University0.14+3.69vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.87-0.96vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.95-2.36vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute-0.47+1.68vs Predicted
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9Villanova University0.72-1.46vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.53-4.21vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo-2.07+1.31vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy-1.95+0.11vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.01-2.42vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.41-2.35vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo-2.07-3.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.58Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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3.52Cornell University2.500.2%1st Place
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3.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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5.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.1%1st Place
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8.69Columbia University0.140.0%1st Place
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5.04Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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4.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.950.1%1st Place
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9.68Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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7.54Villanova University0.720.0%1st Place
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5.79Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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12.31University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
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12.11U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
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10.58Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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12.65Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
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12.31University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Kelter | 19.7% | 19.2% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 19.5% | 17.5% | 17.7% | 15.2% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 17.2% | 16.9% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 8.4% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antonia Leggett | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 12.5% | 21.7% | 20.4% | 14.1% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 9.6% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Morin | 11.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 13.8% | 20.9% | 20.7% | 14.4% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Miller | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 19.9% | 18.7% | 14.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 16.8% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 19.4% | 27.3% | 29.5% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 23.2% | 26.9% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 10.3% | 15.2% | 26.3% | 19.2% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 15.4% | 24.9% | 41.2% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 19.4% | 27.3% | 29.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.