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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.80vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.87+2.82vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.53+2.68vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.50-0.30vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.54-1.36vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84-0.94vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.95-2.41vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo-2.07+4.20vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.14-0.32vs Predicted
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10Villanova University0.72-2.44vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-1.01-0.23vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute-0.47-2.20vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-1.95-0.97vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.41-2.33vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo-2.07-3.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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4.82Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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5.68Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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3.7Cornell University2.500.2%1st Place
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3.64Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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5.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.1%1st Place
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4.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.950.1%1st Place
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12.2University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
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8.68Columbia University0.140.0%1st Place
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7.56Villanova University0.720.0%1st Place
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10.77Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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9.8Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
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12.03U. S. Military Academy-1.950.0%1st Place
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12.67Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
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12.2University of Buffalo-2.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 18.0% | 16.4% | 15.7% | 14.3% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 9.6% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 18.2% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 16.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 17.5% | 18.7% | 16.0% | 15.4% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Morin | 12.2% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 25.1% | 29.2% | 0.0% |
| Antonia Leggett | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 21.9% | 23.0% | 12.3% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Miller | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 21.1% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 24.8% | 22.5% | 13.6% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 12.3% | 24.9% | 20.0% | 14.4% | 6.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Whipple | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 21.4% | 29.5% | 21.5% | 0.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 23.2% | 42.7% | 0.0% |
| Brendan McCue | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 18.3% | 25.1% | 29.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.