Race 2A

penobscot-bay

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Dakota Northrup 12.9% 12.9% 9.9% 11.4% 10.4% 8.8% 7.5% 8.3% 6.3% 4.1% 4.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3%
Alexander Vasiliou 6.5% 7.5% 6.8% 8.9% 6.2% 8.2% 6.8% 7.6% 10.0% 11.1% 8.1% 8.0% 3.2% 1.1%
Jackson Hamilton 7.5% 7.8% 7.7% 6.9% 7.8% 7.5% 9.0% 8.9% 9.5% 8.5% 9.7% 6.0% 2.4% 0.8%
Walter Florio 7.3% 8.0% 9.8% 8.5% 7.6% 9.4% 9.4% 9.2% 7.3% 8.3% 7.5% 4.8% 2.3% 0.6%
Sam Alexander 7.1% 9.7% 9.2% 9.4% 8.3% 9.6% 7.0% 8.9% 9.4% 8.0% 6.3% 4.9% 1.9% 0.3%
Josh Dochoda 10.2% 8.0% 10.5% 9.1% 10.6% 8.9% 8.8% 8.0% 7.9% 6.3% 6.4% 3.1% 1.9% 0.3%
Jack McGraw 11.4% 11.5% 11.9% 9.2% 9.3% 9.1% 10.1% 8.2% 6.1% 5.8% 3.8% 2.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Nick Digiovanni 9.0% 9.9% 7.2% 8.0% 9.1% 8.7% 10.4% 8.2% 7.2% 7.4% 6.5% 5.8% 2.3% 0.3%
Frank Reeg 6.2% 3.7% 4.8% 4.7% 7.1% 5.2% 8.4% 10.1% 8.2% 11.4% 11.4% 11.1% 5.6% 2.1%
Colin Richards 4.4% 3.1% 3.6% 5.4% 6.2% 6.1% 7.4% 7.1% 9.1% 9.2% 11.0% 15.6% 9.1% 2.7%
Noah Brayer 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.8% 2.4% 3.5% 5.1% 8.3% 30.0% 41.7%
Cameron Holley 12.8% 13.3% 12.6% 11.7% 9.7% 10.1% 8.2% 6.6% 5.7% 3.7% 3.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Amy Macdonald 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.7% 3.0% 3.4% 3.7% 8.4% 26.4% 45.7%
James Peraire-Bueno 3.1% 2.9% 4.1% 4.3% 5.4% 5.9% 4.6% 5.4% 7.9% 9.3% 13.0% 17.7% 12.4% 4.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.