Race 3A

penobscot-bay

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Dakota Northrup 10.9% 14.5% 11.4% 11.2% 10.0% 7.9% 7.2% 7.2% 7.0% 5.7% 3.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Cameron Holley 14.5% 13.5% 14.0% 10.3% 11.4% 9.2% 7.8% 7.2% 4.8% 3.1% 2.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Jack McGraw 11.2% 10.3% 9.9% 9.5% 8.7% 10.1% 8.0% 9.2% 7.1% 7.3% 4.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.3%
Josh Dochoda 8.8% 11.4% 9.8% 8.4% 9.3% 9.4% 10.5% 7.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.2% 3.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Alexander Vasiliou 4.8% 6.3% 6.6% 7.7% 7.7% 6.8% 8.4% 7.6% 10.1% 8.3% 10.4% 8.6% 5.4% 1.3%
Frank Reeg 5.3% 4.7% 4.1% 5.8% 5.8% 8.2% 7.6% 8.4% 8.5% 10.4% 10.1% 13.0% 6.3% 1.8%
Sam Alexander 10.5% 9.4% 9.4% 8.8% 10.6% 8.1% 8.4% 8.9% 8.3% 5.5% 5.9% 4.5% 1.4% 0.3%
Walter Florio 8.9% 8.1% 8.7% 9.0% 8.1% 8.2% 9.4% 7.8% 8.3% 7.3% 6.5% 6.5% 2.9% 0.3%
Nick Digiovanni 8.1% 8.5% 6.8% 9.1% 8.0% 10.7% 9.0% 8.0% 9.6% 9.0% 6.6% 3.9% 1.8% 0.9%
Jackson Hamilton 7.7% 5.7% 7.4% 8.8% 9.2% 7.3% 8.2% 9.6% 8.4% 8.4% 9.6% 6.2% 2.9% 0.6%
Noah Brayer 0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0% 2.4% 3.4% 5.5% 8.3% 29.4% 41.8%
James Peraire-Bueno 3.0% 2.7% 3.8% 3.7% 4.0% 5.5% 6.1% 7.0% 7.5% 11.0% 12.0% 15.9% 12.4% 5.4%
Amy Macdonald 1.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 2.1% 1.4% 2.6% 2.8% 4.7% 9.6% 26.2% 44.4%
Colin Richards 4.3% 3.4% 5.8% 5.7% 5.4% 6.0% 6.1% 7.8% 8.6% 11.3% 11.6% 13.6% 8.2% 2.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.