Race 4A

penobscot-bay

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Nick Digiovanni 8.8% 9.7% 8.5% 8.3% 9.7% 8.6% 8.4% 8.9% 8.0% 6.9% 6.2% 5.2% 2.4% 0.4%
Dakota Northrup 13.7% 10.8% 12.2% 11.2% 8.7% 9.0% 9.8% 7.9% 6.4% 4.1% 2.9% 2.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Cameron Holley 13.8% 14.7% 12.5% 9.6% 10.8% 7.6% 9.3% 6.5% 6.0% 3.8% 3.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Alexander Vasiliou 5.1% 6.9% 6.2% 7.3% 6.9% 9.0% 6.3% 9.8% 9.3% 10.4% 9.1% 8.8% 3.8% 1.1%
Jack McGraw 9.1% 9.6% 10.4% 11.8% 9.8% 7.9% 8.4% 9.5% 7.1% 6.8% 4.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.1%
Sam Alexander 8.9% 8.4% 8.2% 8.6% 9.1% 9.6% 8.8% 7.8% 9.5% 7.1% 6.8% 4.7% 2.2% 0.3%
Colin Richards 4.9% 4.9% 6.5% 5.6% 5.0% 4.4% 7.8% 6.5% 9.6% 9.4% 11.1% 14.3% 8.3% 1.7%
Jackson Hamilton 7.9% 8.4% 6.9% 7.3% 8.0% 9.0% 7.3% 7.9% 9.4% 9.5% 7.8% 6.1% 3.6% 0.9%
Amy Macdonald 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 2.1% 3.6% 4.5% 7.9% 26.7% 46.5%
Walter Florio 7.6% 7.1% 7.9% 8.0% 10.1% 8.0% 10.5% 8.8% 7.8% 9.2% 7.8% 4.7% 2.3% 0.2%
Frank Reeg 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 5.7% 6.0% 8.3% 7.5% 8.0% 8.0% 9.8% 11.9% 11.4% 6.4% 2.4%
Josh Dochoda 9.5% 9.0% 11.1% 10.1% 8.3% 9.9% 8.1% 8.7% 7.7% 6.8% 5.4% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Noah Brayer 1.0% 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 1.9% 1.0% 2.4% 2.1% 3.3% 5.4% 8.3% 27.9% 42.1%
James Peraire-Bueno 3.6% 3.0% 3.6% 4.4% 4.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 7.0% 9.3% 13.6% 16.5% 12.8% 3.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.